Bloomberg (USA): Trump – the least bad option for Putin | 01/18/2022, Inosmi

Pets of the Krasnoyarsk zoo Roev Rush the stream predicted the results of elections in the USA - Inosmi, 1920, 10.23.2020

Bloomberg columnist reflects on who is the least bad for Russia – Biden or Trump. Apparently, this question cares even more than the future of the United States and well -being | 10/23/2020, Inosmi

Bloomberg (USA): Trump – the least bad option for Putin

Pets of the Krasnoyarsk zoo Roev Rush the stream predicted the results of elections in the USA - Inosmi, 1920, 10.23.2020

Bloomberg columnist reflects on who is the least bad for Russia – Biden or Trump. Apparently, this question cares even more than the future of the United States and the well -being of ordinary Americans. In her opinion, with the notorious intervention of Russia – everything is ambiguous, because Putin seems to be not beneficial to the unconditional victory of one of the candidates.

Trump's presidency was not as profitable for the Kremlin as they hoped there. However, Biden’s liberal internationalism will also not be good news for Russia.

Four years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin was a ghost at the US electoral feast. The Kremlin considered Donald Trump arrogant, but enough non -conformist and even supple, so that he could work with him to revise the connections between the countries. In 2020, such illusions are no longer left. Whatever the outcome of the November elections, it will not bring benefits to Moscow.

The US intelligence services proved – the Kremlin tried to persuade the bowl of the electoral scales to the side of Trump with the help of cyber attacks and fake news distributed through social networks. However, the bitter truth is that Trump's presidency did not bring Moscow the benefits that she was counting on. According to Putin, Russia is just an observer, but it can intervene now. On Wednesday, representatives of the US intelligence services again announced that Russia and Iran received registration data of voters who can be used to transmit misinformation.

Yes, Trump did not condemn the poisoning of the leader of the Russian opposition Alexei Navalny or the alleged payment of remuneration to the Taliban fighters (prohibited in the Russian Federation – approx. Ed.) For attacks on American soldiers. Closing eyes to such incidents, Trump leaves Russia a large space for maneuver in nearby countries, for example, in Belarus, and at a distance from its borders. He also sowed international discord, weakening multilateral institutions that could intervene.

As it turned out, although the American president declared his admiration for Putin, the conversations were not enough to unconditionally help the Kremlin.

In fact, since the end of the Cold War, the relations of Russia and the United States have never been as bad as now. During the presidency of Trump, a system of sanctions was introduced that immobilized the Russian economy. Washington prevented Russia from defending its energy interests in Europe and, moreover, tried to get out of the arms control contracts that Moscow wants to save. On February 5, 2021, the deadline for the START-III agreement signed in 2010, limiting the number of detailed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers.The Kremlin proposed to extend the contract for another year. If this is not done, then the two largest nuclear arsenal in the world for the first time since the 70s will not be limited.

Democrats candidate Joe Biden is more consistent, but he has more opportunities to curb Russia, and for the Kremlin this is a real headache. Yes, he seeks to support the idea of ​​monitoring weapons. However, he is completely not ready to reboot the relations of countries on mutually beneficial conditions, as Barack Obama tried unsuccessfully. At that time, Biden himself was a vice president, the chair of the president of Russia was occupied by Dmitry Medvedev, and Putin acted as the prime minister.

Biphartyic sentiments in the US Congress and a huge number of non -completed sanctions in any case will interfere with voltage discharge. Nigel GULD-Davies from the International Institute of Strategic Studies emphasizes that attempts to turn backy of Trump's isolationist policy will not help, even if allied relations, including in Europe. The current complex and unpredictable situation is more suitable for Moscow. In Russia, votes are already heard that offers to stop trying to join the general course.

Russia also does not proceed from the standpoint of power. Compared to 2016, Putin's popularity decreased. The country's economy suffers from pandemia and reducing oil prices, although not as much as many of its rivals. Comparative economic power has been reduced for several years. The number of coronavirus illuminates daily records, which determines uncertainty in the future. With such initial data, it is difficult to demonstrate the status of a superpower.

As a result, Putin showed characteristic realism. During a television interview, he clearly indicated what benefits the Trump administration brought trade and energy, but at the same time noted its lack – the inability to keep his word. He calculated the costs – the sanctions were introduced or expanded 46 times, according to him. Then, in a manner uncharacteristic for himself, he said that he was ready to look for a common language with Bayden, in the process he touched on the theme of Christian values ​​and even his past in the Communist Party, which he rarely mentions. All this is a clear manifestation of the Kremlin’s real policy.

Perhaps the best outcome for Moscow will be a controversial result, which will follow a long trial. Representatives of the US intelligence services believe that Trump's hints for falsification of voting play into Russia, as they undermine faith in democratic systems. It is likely that Putin will be delighted with such a challenge to the most respected democracy in the world. This will clearly confirm his statements that liberalism is outdated. However, the interval period is unlikely to last long and, most likely, will not bring any benefits to Moscow.

In the end, what is the least bad for the outcome for Russia? If you do not pay attention to sanctions, then it may be better to leave everything as it is. According to the political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya from R. Politik, Russia considers Trump as a gambling game in a casino, so it is better to continue to play, because you can once break the jackpot. Let this take a lot of time.

Clara Ferreira Marquez is a Coloomberg Opinion columnist. He writes about raw materials, social and managerial problems, as well as environmental issues. Previously, she was an assistant editor in Reuters BreakingViews, as well as the editor and correspondent of Reuters in Singapore, India, Great Britain, Italy and Russia.